Showing posts with label foreclosure. Show all posts
Showing posts with label foreclosure. Show all posts

Thursday, September 15, 2011

foreclosure sales


Adam Khoo, Invest Fair 2009 by aiksing


You've undoubtedly seen all of them or read them. Glossy ads or four-color spreads in publications and newspapers promising to teach you all of the juicy information regarding successful real-estate investing. And all you need to do to learn each one of these real estate investing surface encounters chuck russo secrets is to pay a rather high sum for a one-or two-day seminar.




Often these types of slick real estate investing classes claim you could make wise, profitable real estate investments with absolutely no money down (other than, of training course, the significant fee you purchase the class). Now, how attractive is which? Make a profit from real estate investments you made with no funds. Possible? Not probably.




Successful owning a home requires cash flow. That's the character of any kind of business or perhaps investment, especially property investing. You put your cash into something that you desire and plan will make you more income.




Unfortunately not enough newbies to the world of property investing believe it's any magical kind of business exactly where standard company rules don't apply. Simply put, if you need to stay in property investing for more than, say, a day time or 2, then you will have to create money to utilize and make investments.




While it might be true in which buying real-estate with simply no money down is easy, anyone who is even made a basic real estate investment (such as buying their very own home) knows there's much more involved in real estate investing that will set you back money. For example, what concerning any essential repairs?




So, the primary rule people not used to real estate investing ought to remember is always to have available cash supplies. Before you determine to actually carry out any real-estate investing, save some funds. Having just a little money in the bank once you begin real estate investing surface encounters chuck russo can help you make more profitable real estate investments in rental properties, for example.




When property investing inside rental properties, you'll want every single child select simply qualified tenants. If you have no cashflow when real estate investing within rental qualities, you could be pressured to take a a smaller amount qualified tenant as you need somebody to cover you money so that you can take treatment of fixes or attorney at law fees.




For any type of real est investing, meaning rental properties or properties you buy to sell, having money reserved can allow you to ask for any higher price. You can ask for a increased price out of your investment because an individual surface encounters chuck russo won't feel financially strapped as you wait for an offer. You won't be backed into a corner and forced to accept just any offer because you desperately need the money.




Another downfall of numerous new to property investing will be, well, greed. Make any profit, yes, but do not become thus greedy which you ask for ridiculous rental or resale rates on many real property investments.




Those not used to real est investing must see real estate investing like a business, NOT a spare time activity. Don't believe real estate investing is going to make you rich overnight. What business does?




It requires about six months to figure out if real estate investing set for you. If you might have decided that, hey I love this, then provide yourself a few years to actually start earning money. It often takes at minimum five years to get truly prosperous in property investing.




Persistence may be the key to be able to success in property investing. If you might have decided that real-estate investing is perfect for you, surface encounters chuck russo keep plugging away at it and the rewards will be greater than you imagined.











Warren Buffett just announced that he's making a landmark investment, $5 billion, in Bank of America.


Bank of America was facing a free-falling stock price and a number of criticisms, including that it did not have enough capital, and that its assets were not worth what it claimed.


Now thanks to Buffett, that will certainly change.


When similar investments were made in Citi and in Goldman Sachs, by Prince Alwaleed and Warren Buffett, in 1990 and 2008, respectively, the stocks experienced long term gains. 


And get this - he says he dreamt up the idea to invest in Bank of America in the bathtub on Tuesday. He liked it, so he called Moynihan on Wednesday morning. The entire story of how it happened is available in a video embedded below, as told to Becky Quick by Buffett.


The story (and the mental image) is amusing but also important - it suggests that the Obama Administration and/or the Treasury, did not have a hand in the agreement.


And to make it very clear that Treasury or Obama had no hand in the arrangement, which makes the news even better for Bank of America.


So does this - the deal is expensive for Buffett, and a good deal for Bank of America. He says in some ways, it's better than the deal he gave to Goldman Sachs in 2008.


But obviously, it's a great deal for Buffett.


Buffett's investment alone is now worth $700 million more than it was when he bought it.






The manic depressive market wildly swings up and down on each new news story: The Fed is meeting at Jackson Hole on August 27 possibly to discuss QE3 (or not), and that news may pump up the stock market. But China's banks seem to be using Enron's accounting manual, Europe's banks need liquidity and are loaded with bad debt, and U.S. banks only temporarily TARPed over trouble. Gaddafi's regime in Libya appears over, but Libya's oil output may not fully recover for years. Venezuela wants banks to open their vaults and send back its gold, but Wells Fargo says gold is a bubble. Pundits say gold is a barbarous relic, but exchanges and banks are now using gold as money. The U.S. is headed for hyperinflation with skyrocketing stock prices, but on the other hand, we seem to be deflating like Japan and doomed to a deflating stock market for another decade. Whom do you trust and what should you do?



No one knows where the stock market or U.S. Treasury bonds are headed tomorrow, but in my opinion, here are some fundamentals to consider.



The Bad News Isn't Going Away



Until we have real global financial reform and restrain the banks, we won't have sustained growth. The stock market hasn't hit bottom. There's a crisis of confidence in banks and all currencies. We haven't taken effective steps to tackle the U.S. deficit through productivity. We haven't examined spending to eliminate fraud and waste, and we haven't addressed our need for more tax revenues by eliminating the Bush tax cuts (for starters).



Savers are punished by "stranguflation:" negative real returns on "safe" assets, declining housing prices, and rising costs of food, energy and health care. The Fed touts the falling cost of I-Pads, but how often do you buy one of those, and how often do you eat?



Good News (for Now)



The USD is still the world's reserve currency. Even though we devalued the USD, there has been a global flight to U.S. Treasuries pushing down our borrowing costs (yields). No one in the global financial community feels the U.S. has done its best to correct our problems, but severe problems in Europe, China's inflation, and Middle East unrest has money running to the U.S. Since we've devalued the dollar, we appear to be a bargain for foreign investors, even though they are terrified by our money printing presses and the potential for inflating commodity prices in the long run.



How did I play this? My own portfolio is currently more than 20% gold with some silver, and I bought out-of-the-money call options on the VIX when it was in the teens with maturities of 4-6 months. This is "short" stock market strategy, one could have also done well buying puts on the S&P a few months ago. In the first big stock market downdraft in August, I sold the options when the VIX hit the high 30's, and I'll buy more options again if the VIX falls again. Many investors are not comfortable with options, and this strategy isn't appropriate for everyone. The rest of my portfolio is chiefly in cash or deep value opportunities.



What Happens Next?



No one knows for sure, and anyone who tells you he or she does is selling snake oil. The situation is fluid. We tried to reflate our deflating economy. Our massive dollar devaluation may encourage investment, because it's protectionist. It reduces our cost of labor, among a few other "benefits." The problem is that the Fed has printed money, and we haven't done anything to position the U.S. for greater productivity. We're trying to inflate our way out of a problem without investing in productivity. This is a very dangerous way of attacking this problem. Even more "stimulus" would just be an attempt to inflate our way out of our long-standing deep recession. That's the foolish and unsuccessful strategy we've adopted so far. That could lead to runaway budget deficits (our deficit already looks intractable) and bring us to double-digit inflation. Even the European flight to US Treasuries may not save us from a deeper recession in that scenario.



If we don't overreact -- and we may have already overreacted -- our dollar devaluation results in our foreign trade situation first getting worse (as it has now) before it gets better. Now is the time (actually, we should have started years ago) to spend capital to increase U.S. productivity. The dollar's plunge relative to other currencies will eventually make us more competitive. This will be good for blue chip companies, in particular those that own real assets and manufacture items. The Fed and Washington may do anything, however, so one must watch the news.



What does this mean for the U.S. stock market? In my opinion, it is currently not good value and feels like the 1970s when we experienced a recession followed by inflation. One should consider staying mostly in cash and expect stocks become cheaper. One might miss an interim rally, especially if the Fed announces QE3 (more "stimulus" and money printing) or more bank bailouts, but that is like using Kleenex laced with sneezing powder. We will see stock prices even lower than they are today. The old paradigm dictated that stocks were a buy when P/E ratios were 13 or less (and many are well above that), dividends at 4%, and book values at 1.3 or less. (This excludes oil companies, which tend to trade at lower P/E ratios in general.) I believe we'll see much better deals in coming months. In 1978/79 P/E ratios sank below 7 for blue chip companies.



Should one buy U.S. Treasuries with long maturities? The long end of the bond market doesn't reward investors due to the potential of rising interest rates. If interest rates spike to double digits, then one can reassess the situation.



Long term investors should consider buying commodities or companies that own physical commodities. We're running out of key commodities especially related to agriculture and fertilizer. Washington's brand of the latter isn't the type we need.





Thursday, September 9, 2010

foreclosure investing




Need-to-know No. 1: The fine print associated with the type of auction you're attending. If you plan to score your bargain-basement unit at the foreclosure auction on the steps of the county courthouse, consult with a local real estate attorney and make sure you conduct an exhaustive title search before you make your bid. It's possible to purchase one of these properties and still have to contend with other liens still on the property, like second (or third) mortgages, back property taxes and Homeowners Association (HOA) dues unpaid by the former owner.



Under the law in nearly half of the states, when you buy a place at the foreclosure auction, the former owner has anywhere from six months to a year after the auction to "redeem" their rights to the property, meaning they have the legal right to buy it back from you.



If you're buying the property at an auction of REO properties (Real Estate Owned by the bank), make sure you read 100% of the terms and conditions of the auction. Many auctions will allow you to get a property inspection -- go figure -- so you should. They will also often allow you to use a mortgage to finance your purchase, which the courthouse foreclosure auctions do not.



However, most of these REO auctions do take a non-refundable cash deposit from the auction winner, and do add some sort of "buyer's premium" on top of the winning bid -- some as high as 5%. That extra cash can make it tougher to get positive cash flow out of the place.



Get clear on the fine print before you buy at any property auction.



Need-to-know No. 2: Your numbers. Many a wanna-be investor thinks, "Hey -- it's a $50,000 condo. If I get $1,000 in rent -- I'll be making cash hand-over-fist." And there ends their cash flow analysis. Seasoned investors know, though, that there are always more line items to the story. If you're thinking about investing in even the cheapest of cheap condos, you still need to create a written cash flow projection, or pro forma, to see how feasible it is that the investment will actually pay off.



If you plan to finance your investment with a mortgage, you must factor in the mortgage payment, mortgage insurance (if you put less than 20% down), and closing costs. And, even if you are able to buy a cheap condo with cash, you still need to take into account the costs of HOA dues, property taxes, landlord's insurance, any utilities landlords pay in your neck of the woods (like water and gas), a property manager and repairs.



You should also include an allowance for long-term maintenance, possible special assessments by the HOA and vacancies -- every landlord deals with occasional months where no rental payments come in. And you should definitely have a chat with your tax adviser about the deductions you should factor in, and the income tax you may incur on the rental income.



Then, offset that -- on paper -- by the average rents being received by other landlords in the complex or the area. If you're only making $3.75 per month in the projections, you might decide that other investments are more sensible.



Need-to-know No. 3: Whether the HOA and the complex are healthy. Sacramento, Calif., real estate agent Stacey Wilson thought she'd scored, big-time, when she invested in a two-bedroom, two-and-a-half bath condo for $40,000 in September of 2009, especially since the place had gone for $175,000 in 2007. After closing, though, it quickly dawned on Wilson that the complex and the HOA were both broke.



"Take a look around and see whether things are in working order," Wilson advises prospective condo investors. "When things are broken, find out how long they've been broken." Wilson's complex has two pools and a sauna, but "none of them works -- and they haven't worked in years."



Also, Wilson's unit is in an HOA riddled with a sky-high rate of delinquent dues, so it can't afford to repair the pools and sauna, nor does it have the cash to replace the wood shake roofs on all the buildings. "We only have a couple of years of roof life left, and now the hazard insurance company is threatening to drop our coverage, because they see the wood roof as a fire hazard," Wilson explains. "It's really important to read every page of the HOA disclosures you get during escrow, and make sure they're solvent. If the HOA is broke, it can create a domino effect of problems."



Need-to-know No. 4: The landlord-tenant laws and restrictions of your city or HOA. Many urban areas, in particular, have rent-control and eviction-control laws that limit your ability to raise the rent, or to evict a tenant without having a particularly strong reason for doing so -- sometimes even requiring landlords to pay tenants to move out.



And because the percentage of owner-occupied units impacts the ability of an HOA's members to resell and refinance their homes (many banks won't offer mortgages in complexes with fewer than 75% of the units being owner-occupied), many HOAs put a cap on how many units can be rented out. If you're planning to buy the condo as a rental property, it behooves you to know how feasible and how desirable it is to be a landlord in that complex and town before you buy.



Need-to-know No. 5: Where goes the neighborhood. Wilson's foray into dirt-cheap condo investing turned into a true adventure when circumstances led to her moving into the property she thought she'd never live in. Turned out, the nighttime goings-on in her new neighborhood were unlike anything she ever expected from her exclusively daytime experiences in the area. Before investing in a discount condo, Wilson advises, act like someone house hunting for their personal residence, and "go by the place at night and on the weekends. You'd be surprised at how different a place can be at night."



The fact that a condo is so inexpensive might actually be a signal that the neighborhood may not be one you want to spend much time in, even as a landlord. Wilson says, with 20/20 hindsight, "If it's really cheap, it's probably not in the best place."

As investors search for yield anywhere and everywhere, bonds are trading in uncharted territory. Please consider Obama Wins Low Yield as Markets Shrink Aiding Deficit

Bond investors seeking top-rated securities face fewer alternatives to Treasuries, allowing President Barack Obama to sell unprecedented sums of debt at ever lower rates to finance a $1.47 trillion deficit.

Shrinking credit markets help explain why some Treasury yields are at record lows even after the amount of marketable government debt outstanding increased by 21 percent from a year earlier to $8.18 trillion. Last week, the U.S. government auctioned $34 billion of three-year notes at a yield of 0.844 percent, the lowest ever for that maturity.

Spending by companies and consumers has slowed as the economy has shown signs of weakening. Companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index have stockpiled a record $2.3 trillion of cash and equivalents. Company borrowing slid 29 percent in the first half of the year to $528 billion amid a dearth of business investment, Bloomberg data shows.
Piles of Cash Equates to Piles of Debt

Companies are piling up cash alright. However, the flip side of that cash is debt.

Moreover, analysts mistake that cash for willingness to expand. The reality is corporations do not want to get trapped like they did in 2008, unable to borrow.

For more on corporate cash levels, please see Are Corporations Sitting on Piles of Cash?
Individuals are also hoarding cash. The U.S. savings rate reached 6.4 percent in June, up from 1.7 percent in August 2007, the start of the financial crisis.
Are Individuals Hoarding Cash?

Individuals are not really "hoarding cash" either. Instead they are paying down debt. Most do not realize that by definition, paying down debt constitutes "saving".

For most wage earners, the savings rate is after-tax salary minus personal consumption expenditures (PCE). For a more precise definition, please see What's Behind The Soaring Savings Rate?
“There’s been a collapse in both consumer and business credit demand,” said James Kochan, the chief fixed-income strategist at Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin-based Wells Fargo Fund Management, which oversees $179 billion. “To see both categories so weak for such an extended period of time, you’d probably have to go back to the Depression.”
Food Stamps and Unemployment Insurance Mask Depression

I believe we are in a depression now. The key difference is food stamps and unemployment checks have replaced bread lines.

We also have hundreds of thousands of people living in their homes without making payments on their mortgage or home equity lines. The slow foreclosure process encourages more to do the same.
“The diminishing supply” of alternatives to Treasuries “is giving Washington an opportunity to continue with its fiscal irresponsibilities,” said Mark MacQueen, partner and portfolio manager at Austin, Texas-based Sage Advisory Services, which oversees $8.5 billion. “The only way to tell Washington and America ‘no more’ is a weak dollar, which eventually leads to higher interest rates.”

“We are slowly playing a fool’s game as rates go further down to unsustainably low levels,” said Dan Shackelford, a money manager who helps oversee $15 billion in fixed-income assets at T. Rowe Price Group Inc. in Baltimore.
Thoughts on the Fool's Game

If you are managing $15 billion thinking it is a "fool's game", then in my opinion you ought not be doing it. It seems to me there is a lack of fiduciary responsibility if one is investing client money in a "fool's game".

What the hell - Anything for a fee!

I do think corporate bonds, especially most junk is playing for the greater fool. In regards to treasuries, there is going to be an exit problem for sure, but that could be years away. In Japan, yields stayed low for a decade. Why can't it happen here?

Yields certainly might stay low for an extended period. Whether or not they do remains to be seen. I happen to like long-term treasuries right now, but certainly not as much as when the 10-year was at 3.75% and bears were foolishly shorting treasuries like mad.
The government isn’t the only one getting a good deal. Armonk, New York-based International Business Machines Corp., the world’s biggest computer services provider, sold $1.5 billion of three-year notes on Aug. 2 with a coupon of 1 percent, the lowest of the more than 3,400 securities in the Barclays Capital U.S. Corporate Index of investment-grade company debt.

Portland, Oregon, sold about $408 million in sewer-system revenue debt on Aug. 11, with utility bond yields at the lowest level on record. Yields on 10-year, AA rated tax-exempts backed by utility revenue stood at 3.02 percent on Aug. 10, according to Bloomberg Fair Market Value data. That’s the lowest since the index was created in November 1993.

“We are in unchartered territory,” said [William Larkin, a fixed-income money manager in Salem, Massachusetts at Cabot Money Management]. “We are pushing and pulling levers that we don’t understand the full implications.”
Uncharted Territory

This is indeed uncharted territory thanks to the Fed pushing and pulling levers in a manner it does not understand. William Black, a former bank regulator, is one person who does understand. Black says U.S. Using "Rally Stupid Strategy" to Hide Bank Losses - Will Produce Japanese Style Lost Decade.

I agree with his assessment.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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